UFC 186: Predicting Johnson vs. Horiguchi


To say that UFC 186 has been ravaged by undesired changes is quite a understatement. The card has suffered the loss of a welterweight title eliminator and a highly anticipated title rematch main event, not to mention the legal battles to secure the return of a well respected MMA legend. Attempting to salvage this event is reigning flyweight king Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson, aiming to defend his crown for a sixth time against the division’s eighth ranked contender; Japan’s Kyoji Horiguchi.

The fact that Johnson is defending against an eighth ranked fighter is testament to not just the division’s worrying lack of depth, but also to his pure domination since becoming the inaugural champion back in 2012.

Since dropping from the Bantamweight ranks in the wake of his unsuccessful title fight against Dominick Cruz in 2011, ‘Mighty Mouse’ has been unstoppable. Under the careful guidance of respected MMA trainer Matt Hume, Johnson has gone 7-0-1 at 125 pounds with ultra-impressive victories over Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez, two men who the UFC viewed as the division’s future rulers. Staking his claim as a pound-for-pound great after easily dismissing all of the tier’s top challengers, the champion has left matchmaker Joe Silva with little choice but to start promoting relatively unproven fighters into contendership positions.

Following in the footsteps of Ali Bagautinov and Chris Cariaso, and hoping to become Japan’s first UFC champion is Kyoji Horiguchi, a former Shooto and Vale Tudo standout who only made his debut at 125 pounds last year. A skilled Karate fighter who has modeled himself after Pride’s legendary Japanese warriors, Horiguchi has demonstrated considerable striking power with his impressive knockout victories over Dustin Pague and Jon Delos Reyes. His dominant victory over former TUF alumni Louis Gaudinot also proved his ability to push a fast and unrelenting pace over the distance, something that most of Johnson’s previous challengers have struggled with. Power, cardio and discipline will be Horiguchi’s key assets when he fights for the title...against a man who is head and shoulders above anyone he has faced previously.

Riding a wave of confidence thanks to his impressive run as champion, ‘Mighty Mouse’ will probably feel that he has the tools to outclass his newest challenger in all aspects of MMA...and the hard truth is that he probably does. This doesn’t mean that Horiguchi isn’t a threat to the champion however. The number one contender has extensively trained to improve his wrestling and also possesses excellent distance management thanks to his karate background, something that will be completely new to Johnson.

Prediction: Expect another lightening fast contest with both men ranking among the organisation’s quickest competitors. Johnson should be able to evade the striking of Horiguchi but in the event that he struggles with the odd timing of his opponent, ‘Mighty Mouse’ should find success taking his opponent to the ground where he can either wear him down with ground control, or submit him with one of his many jiu-jitsu weapons. It’ll be a far cry from complete mauling seen when he destroyed Chris Cariaso, but regardless it should be another comfortable victory for the champion, another win will only further expose the flyweight division as one of the UFC’s weakest in terms of producing credible challengers.

UFC 186 Main Card Predictions - Picks in bold:

Bantamweight - Yves Jabouin vs. Thomas Almeida
Catchweight (160 lbs) - John Makdessi vs. Shane Campbell
Middleweight - Michael Bisping vs. C.B. Dollaway
Catchweight (215 lbs) - Quinton Jackson vs. Fabio Maldonado
Flyweight Championship - Demetrious Johnson © vs. Kyoji Horiguchi

PPV Picks 2015 Record (14-6)

What do you think will happen at UFC 186?