UFC on Fox: Predicting Johnson vs. Bader

It’s been a turbulent month for the UFC in terms of card organisation, but thankfully for them and us fans their return to New Jersey has remained largely intact. Meeting in the main event are two light heavyweights making their final approach on a shot at the title. Anthony Johnson has been there before, but Ryan Bader has yet to reach the pinnacle despite a long tenure with the promotion. Can Bader finally secure a crack at the gold, or will the dangerous ‘Rumble’ book a tantalising rematch with the champion?

A mainstay of the Ultimate Fighting Championship Ryan Bader has been a fixture in the 205 division since a crushing knockout victory over Vinny Magalhães saw him win The Ultimate Fighter eight long years ago. Since then the Nevada native has developed an unfortunate reputation of being one of the division’s ‘nearly men’; almost always enjoying success against lower ranked opponents, but never really against the real contenders. His four career defeats have come against Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Lyoto Machida and an aged Tito Ortiz, and all have been via stoppage.

Bader has the tools to be great. A two-time All-American champion in wrestling, Bader has since combined his grappling with an effective striking game which centres around his power, and a purple belt in jiu-jitsu that shouldn’t be underestimated. Now riding a five-fight winning streak with key victories over Rashad Evans, Phil Davis and Ovince Saint Preux, Bader seems to have finally put everything together, and crucially is fighting far more intelligently than at any other point over the course of his career.

A man who knows what it’s like to make a sudden career revival is Anthony Johnson. Having insanely spent the majority of his professional career as a lighter weight fighter, ‘Rumble’ turned things around in spectacular fashion following his UFC release in 2012. Moving up to a much healthier 205 pounds Johnson returned to the promotion with a vengeance in 2014 is now widely considered one the best, and most terrifying light heavyweights competitors on the planet.

There are few men alive today who can withstand the barrage of strikes that Johnson will throw at you. One of the sport’s premier power strikers, ‘Rumble’s’ gameplan is simple, yet still extremely difficult to resist with his record of 14 finishes in his 20 career victories testament to the fact. Johnson’s striking and otherworldly power may be his greatest strengths, but the former title challenger has also demonstrated vastly improved defensive grappling since returning to the promotion, a skill that will undoubtedly be tested once again here.

Prediction: Ryan Bader has never looked as good as he does right now, but he’ll need to be at his very best and then some to defeat his latest adversary. Bader’s wrestling and careful and calculated approach will be key to taking the advantage, but he has shown to be hesitant and a little sloppy in high pressure situations. ‘Rumble’ has previously shown excellent takedown defense against a mutual opponent in Phil Davis. If he can replicate the same form he wowed with in that fight and connect with a couple of trademark haymakers it could be a very quick night for both fighters.

This is Bader’s best, and possibly last chance to secure a title opportunity, but I’m still not sure that he truly belongs among the elite of the division. This is Johnson’s fight to lose, and he’ll be hungry for redemption following his title disappointment at last year’s UFC 187. ‘Rumble’ to book another shot with a second round KO.

UFC on Fox 18 Main Card Predictions - Picks in bold:

Welterweight - Sage Northcutt vs. Bryan Barberena
Bantamweight - Iuri Alcântara vs. Jimmie Rivera
Heavyweight - Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell
Light Heavyweight - Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader

UFC Fight Picks 2016 Record: 4-5

What do you think will happen at UFC on Fox 18? Leave your predictions below!