UFC on Fox: Predicting Dillashaw vs. Barão 2


Finally rematching following their shocking encounter thirteen months ago, T.J. Dillashaw will defend his UFC bantamweight championship against the very fighter he defeated to win the title, Renan Barão. Will Dillashaw silence his remaining detractors with another triumph, or will his Brazilian rival succeed in reclaiming his prize?

A long-time member of Urijah Faber’s Sacramento-based Team Alpha Male, T.J. Dillashaw’s journey from TUF rookie to bantamweight champion is a story that a Hollywood screenwriter would struggle to concoct. Starched by the now-flyweight contender John Dodson in less than a minute in 2011, Dillashaw rebounded from the loss, but never figured to be anything more than a fringe player in the 135-pound division. That all dramatically changed however when he jumped in at the final second to challenge, the at-the-time streaking champion, Barão at UFC 173.

Employing a heavily-drilled gameplan based upon constant movement and range management, Dillashaw produced one of the greatest performances ever witnessed inside the Octagon. His unpredictable patterns completely confounded Barão, and his vastly improved striking under the guidance of Duane Ludwig overwhelmed the former champion, resulting in a stunning fifth-round head kick knockout.

Fast-forward to the present and the rematch is finally about to happen. The first real opportunity for the two combatants to answer the question that has lingered since that fateful night in August 2014: Was it just a freak result?

As you would expect from a product of Team Alpha Male, Dillashaw is a wrestling standout well-versed in a number of choke submissions, and now thanks to Ludwig’s considerable input, a completely overhauled striking game. Excellent footwork and an ability to move in and out of range with blinding pace rounds off one of the UFC’s most improved fighters, a stiff challenge for just about anyone in the talent-rich bantamweight division.

Defeat at the hands of Dillashaw didn't just cost Barão his title, it snapped his 33-fight undefeated streak, a feat practically unheard of in the sport, and almost instantly removed him from pound-for-pound discussions. Revenge has almost surely factored heavily in the Brazilian’s fight preparations.

A known blitzer with a penchant for throwing a deadly spinning back kick, Barão’s real strength arguably lies on the ground. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Nova União head trainer André Pederneiras, 15 of Barão’s 33 victories have come via a multitude of submissions, with his arm triangle choke being his go-to weapon during his Zuffa tenure.

Prediction: An all-round better approach to fighting and buckets of determination and self-belief led Dillashaw to the title, and could easily see him continue his reign beyond his latest challenge. Unfortunately however I firmly believe that Barão took him lightly in their first fight, and paid the ultimate price for doing so. This time the Brazilian will be better prepared to deal with the speed and striking of the champion. Look for a razor focused Barão to expose Dillashaw’s holes on the mat with takedowns and submission attempts. MMA logic went out the window for their first fight; but expect the balance to be corrected by the coronation of the division's first 2-time champion this Saturday.

UFC on Fox 16 Main Card Predictions - Picks in bold:

Lightweight - Joe Lauzon vs. Takanori Gomi
Lightweight - Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder
Women’s Bantamweight - Miesha Tate vs. Jessica Eye
Bantamweight Championship - T.J. Dillashaw © vs. Renan Barão

UFC Fight Picks 2015 Record: 57-32

What do you think will happen at UFC on Fox 16? Leave your predictions below!


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