UFC 188: Predicting Velasquez vs. Werdum


Originally scheduled to do battle at UFC 180, heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and number one contender Fabrício Werdum have been given a second crack at headlining a Mexican-based card. With Velasquez defending his title for the first time in almost two years, and Werdum’s newly acquired status as interim champion, the stakes are higher than ever before. Who will leave Mexico City as ‘The Baddest Man on the Planet’?

Defeating late-replacement Mark Hunt to become the interim champion last year, Fabrício Werdum is arguably in the finest form of his professional mixed martial arts career. A decorated and multiple-time world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, ‘Vai Cavalo’ has recently added a solid striking game to his already dangerous arsenal, and ultra-impressive victories over fellow contender Travis Browne and the aforementioned Hunt are proof of his new weapons. Now dangerous in multiple areas of the game, Werdum has successfully reinvented himself as one of the heavyweight division’s most dangerous contenders.

At 37 years of age, Werdum has accomplished much in the sport. Competing for Pride, Strikeforce and now in his second spell in the UFC, the Brazilian holds notable victories over some of MMA’s biggest and best superstars, headlined of course by the shocking upset win over the consensus greatest-of-all-time, Fedor Emelianenko.

Despite a long period of inactivity, the current lineal heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is considered by many to be the greatest active fighter of his weight class. Competing for the first time since his epic trilogy-ending victory over rival Junior dos Santos, the Mexican-American is hoping to reignite his reign of destruction.

A ferocious, former NCAA division 1 wrestler with scary striking accuracy and a seemingly endless gas tank, Velasquez may possess a style similar to a grinding wrestler, but few in the sport’s heaviest division can withstand the champion’s pressure and relentless assault. Velasquez’s greatest weapon however is his ability to keep a furious pace over time. Cardio has long been the achilles heel for the majority of larger athletes and the champion has been able to take advantage of this fact time and time again. Safe in the knowledge that his conditioning cannot be beaten, Velasquez is able to drag his opponents into deep water and keep them there.

Prediction: There are two factors that could prove pivotal in this match: The state of the champion after such a lengthy lay-off, and his ability to withstand submission attempts from one of the organisation’s best Jiu-Jitsu practitioners. Sure, Velasquez is a black belt in the art, but he has never encountered anyone like Werdum before. I don’t think the lay-off will be an issue; in fact I believe Velasquez has benefited from the time off, especially after two gruelling wars with dos Santos.

Werdum is a tough competitor, but he has shown considerable weakness in his striking defence, and likely doesn't possess the conditioning required to go the distance with the champion. ‘Vai Cavalo’ will initially pose an interesting puzzle for the champ, but expect Velasquez to tie him up against the fence, before finishing the fight with a barrage of strikes in the third or fourth round.

UFC 188 Main Card Predictions - Picks in bold:

Women’s Strawweight - Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
Featherweight - Yair Rodríguez vs. Charles Rosa
Middleweight - Kelvin Gastelum vs. Nate Marquardt
Lightweight - Gilbert Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez
Heavyweight Championship - Cain Velasquez © vs. Fabrício Werdum (Interim ©)

UFC FIght Picks 2015 Record (37-15)

What do you think will happen at UFC 188? Leave your predictions below!




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